Holiday Hiring 2026: What a Lean Seasonal Season Says About the U.S. Job Market
The short answer: the 2026 holiday hiring season is starting lean, not strong. Retailers expect to hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers, roughly in line with last year's estimated 356,000, even as holiday sales are forecast to grow. That combination — rising sales, flat seasonal hiring — is the clearest signal of how cautious employers have become. The figures come from the National Retail Federation's annual holiday forecast, released October 15, 2026. The group expects November and December retail sales to rise 4.2 percent over 2025, to $1.013 trillion, up from $972 billion last year. Its forecast covers November 1 through December 31 and excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants. What the hiring numbers actually say A seasonal hiring range of 325,000 to 375,000 is not a hiring boom. It sits around last year's level, and the NRF itself describes retailers' approach as measured. The reasons it cites are familiar: higher gas prices,...